Bound To Happen

For the origin of this quote, see The Simpsons episode "Simpson Safari". The use is truly ironic, because the term was used to described something of mind blowing unlikeliness. However, I have come to use it to describe something that everybody knows is going to happen, but is still surprised. Today, someone tried to tell me it is ironic that a person who eats cheeseburgers every day eventually has a heart attack. That's not ironic, that causality.

This term has come to describe a number of statistical phenomena, including selection bias, where people misinterpret the world around them. Take Alanis Morisette's man who was afraid to fly, and when he finally did, he died in a plane crash. This is a crazy coincidence, right? Actually, this is bound to happen.

Say 1 in 25 people is afraid to fly, and 1 out of 10 people on a plane are on their first trip. Add to that that a person who is afraid to fly is 5 times more likely to come with an alternative to flying, and ignoring small aircraft, the average plane holds 150 people. 25 * 10 * 5 / 150 = 5, so there should be a person who is afraid to fly on their first ever trip once out of every 5 plane crashes! Obviously a specific person crashing their first time up is rare, but so is that person winning the lottery! Given a large enough population, it would be absurdly unlikely for their to be coincidences. Therefore, the man dying in the song is not ironic, it's bound to happen.

Is it Irony? Amy Winehouse goes to rehab.

Check out this story at Hollywood today . Singer Amy Winehouse, best known for her song rehab, in which she sings, "They try to make me good to rehab, I'm saying No, No, No", is going to rehab. It's a sad story, but not unexpected. Too many young artists get caught in the never ending downward spiral of drugs and alcohol. Everybody thinks they are the exception, they can abuse substances and not be like those who died from it. I can't imagine the stress of performing in front of large audiences every night, the pressure by the record label and fans to put out more hits.

Is it Irony? No, it's just sad, a lack of willpower.
Is breaking a New Years resolution ironic? No, it's Bound to Happen.

The anti-rehab hit “Rehab” is itself up for top Song and Record honors and would be what she performs for a worldwide audience – creating both an irony and an embarrassment. While the Recording Academy supports free expression it also avidly battles drug addiction through its highly regarded, and donation supported, Musicares program. It’s like the Firemen giving a Citizenship award to an arsonist.

This metaphor is completely wrong. I would say it's more like the Firemen giving an award to a man for singlehandedly protecting his town from fire, and while he was at the award ceremony, his town burning down. Or, it's like the Firemen giving an award to a man who failed to stop a fire. Amy Winehouse isn't the enemy in the war against drug addiction, she is a fallen soldier.

Verdict: Not ironic.